V2.481: Falsification Decision Tree — 7 Tests, P(survive)=93%, Decisive by 2029

Status: COMPLETE — Framework genuinely falsifiable, DESI Y5 is the deciding test

Why This Experiment

A theory that can’t be killed isn’t science. This experiment maps every concrete observation that could kill the framework, computes the survival probability at each step, and identifies the decisive test.

The 7 Falsifiable Predictions

#	Prediction	Current tension	Decisive test	Year	Kill if
1	Ω_Λ = 0.6877	+0.4σ	Euclid + CMB-S4	2032	outside [0.68, 0.70]
2	w₀ = -1 exactly	-2.1σ	DESI Y5	2030	w₀ > -0.85
3	w_a = 0 exactly	+2.5σ	DESI Y5 + Euclid	2030	|w_a| > 0.45
4	H₀ = 67.7	+0.6σ	Standard sirens	2030	H₀ > 70.7
5	N_eff = 3.044	+0.3σ	CMB-S4	2030	N_eff > 3.13
6	Σm_ν ≈ 0.06 eV	0.0σ	Euclid + CMB-S4	2032	Σm_ν > 0.12
7	Species-dep ΔΩ_Λ	0.0σ	HL-LHC	2035	Wrong ΔΩ_Λ

Threat Ranking

CRITICAL (!!!)

1. w_a = 0: Current tension 2.5σ, future discrimination 11.7σ. If DESI Y1’s w_a = -1.75 is real, the framework is dead by 2029.
2. w₀ = -1: Current tension 2.1σ, future discrimination 9.0σ. The w₀w_a degeneracy inflates apparent deviation, but this is the biggest near-term risk.

MANAGEABLE (!)

3. Ω_Λ value: Theory-limited at ±0.0082 (V2.475). Experimental precision will surpass theory by 2032.
4. N_eff: CMB-S4 reaches σ = 0.03. Any dark radiation kills the framework.
5. BSM species-dependence: Only triggers if LHC finds a new particle (~5% chance).

SAFE

6. H₀ standard sirens: σ ≈ 1 km/s/Mpc by 2030 — not precise enough for 3σ discrimination between n=10 (67.7) and n=2 (73.3) for several more years.
7. Neutrino mass: Normal vs inverted hierarchy is a soft preference, not a hard kill.

Joint Survival Probability

Scenario	P(survive all 7 tests)
Framework correct	93%
DESI w₀ deviation is real	~0%

If the framework is correct, it has a 93% chance of surviving all tests through 2035. The 7% risk comes primarily from the BSM discovery test (5% chance a new particle is found that shifts Ω_Λ).

But: if the DESI Y1 w₀w_a deviation is real (w₀ = -0.55), the framework is killed with certainty. DESI Y5 (expected ~2028-2029) will settle this.

Year-by-Year Timeline

2029-2030: P(survived) = 98.9%  *** DECISIVE YEAR ***
  → DESI Y5 w₀/w_a (CRITICAL — kills framework if w ≠ -1)
  → Standard sirens H₀ (tests edge modes)
  → CMB-S4 N_eff (tests dark radiation)

2032: P(survived) = 98.4%
  → Euclid Ω_Λ precision
  → Neutrino mass hierarchy

2035: P(survived) = 93.5%
  → HL-LHC BSM search

The DESI Situation

This is the framework’s most dangerous near-term threat. DESI Y1 finds:

• w₀ = -0.55 ± 0.21 (w₀w_a model) — 2.1σ from framework prediction of -1
• w_a = -1.75 ± 0.70 — 2.5σ from framework prediction of 0

However, important caveats:

1. The w₀w_a parameterization has a strong degeneracy that inflates apparent deviation
2. In a fixed-w fit, DESI Y1 gives w = -0.99 ± 0.05 — perfectly consistent
3. The “deviation” comes from BAO data at z ~ 0.5 showing an anomalous feature
4. DESI Y3 data (expected ~2027) will clarify whether this is statistics or physics

Bottom line: The framework predicts w = -1 exactly. By 2029, DESI Y5 will test this at 3σ precision. If w ≠ -1, the framework is dead. If w = -1, the framework passes its hardest test.

What This Means for the Science

The framework is genuinely scientific

Unlike string theory’s landscape (10⁵⁰⁰ vacua, no prediction) or loop quantum gravity (no cosmological prediction), this framework makes 7 concrete, falsifiable predictions that are testable within the next decade.

The biggest risk is DESI, not precision

The error budget (V2.475) showed the framework is theory-limited at 1.2%. But the threat ranking shows the equation of state test (w = -1?) is far more dangerous than the Ω_Λ precision test. The framework’s fate doesn’t depend on resolving n_grav — it depends on whether dark energy evolves.

The Hubble tension → graviton connection (V2.476) is testable

If standard sirens converge on H₀ ≈ 73 → n_grav = 2 → framework dead. If standard sirens converge on H₀ ≈ 68 → n_grav = 10 → framework vindicated. This will take until ~2033 (100+ events needed for σ < 0.5 km/s/Mpc).

Files

• src/falsification.py: 7 tests, decision tree, joint survival, threat ranking, timeline
• tests/test_falsification.py: 25 tests, all passing
• run_experiment.py: Full 7-phase analysis
• results.json: Machine-readable results