V2.480 - Falsification Decision Tree
V2.480: Falsification Decision Tree
Objective
Synthesize ALL falsification experiments into a unified timeline with specific dates, experiments, kill conditions, and survival probabilities. Answer: when exactly will we know if the framework is right or wrong?
The 7 Predictions
| # | Prediction | Current tension | Kill condition | P(survive) | 5σ by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | w = -1.000 exactly | 4.1σ (DESI+SN) | w₀ ≠ -1 at 5σ (SN-independent) | 75% | 2029 |
| 2 | BAO from Ω_Λ=0.6877 | 1.5σ (LRG bins) | χ²/dof > 2 with Y5 | 70% | 2029 |
| 3 | H₀ = 67.68 km/s/Mpc | 0.4σ (vs Planck) | Siren H₀ > 70 at 5σ | 85% | 2035 |
| 4 | n_grav = 10 | 0.6σ (5 probes) | n ≠ 10 at 5σ | 90% | 2035 |
| 5 | Normal hierarchy, Majorana | 0.0σ | IH confirmed at 3σ | 90% | 2032 |
| 6 | Species-dependent ΔΩ_Λ | 0.0σ | BSM found, ΔΩ_Λ wrong | 95% | 2035 |
| 7 | fσ₈ from Ω_m=0.3123 | 0.5σ | f(z)σ₈ inconsistent 5σ | 85% | 2032 |
Key Results
Cumulative survival probability
| Year | Active tests | P(survive all) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2 | 52% | TESTING |
| 2028 | 4 | 40% | STRESSED |
| 2029 | 5 | 34% | STRESSED |
| 2032 | 7 | 29% | CRITICAL |
| 2035 | 7 | 29% | CRITICAL |
P(framework survives ALL 7 tests) = 29%
Most dangerous tests
- BAO bin-by-bin (70%): LRG tension at 2.8σ may grow with DESI Y5
- Dark energy EoS (75%): 4.1σ DESI+SN tension, but SN-dependent
- Hubble constant (85%): safe vs Planck, but SH0ES disagrees
The decision tree
- 2027: DESI Y3 — first serious test. If w₀ remains ≠ -1 AND is SN-independent, framework stressed.
- 2029: DESI Y5 + standard sirens — both w and H₀ tested at 5σ. The year the framework lives or dies.
- 2032: LSST+CMB-S4 — n_grav=10 tested at 3σ. If framework survived to here, strong support.
- 2035: ET+CE + all combined — every prediction at 5σ. Either confirmed or dead.
Assessment
The 29% joint survival probability is HONEST. The DESI w₀wₐ tension (4.1σ) is real and dangerous. But:
- It depends on SN calibration (varies 2σ between samples)
- BAO alone gives w₀ = -1.0 ± 0.3 (consistent)
- The 2029 siren H₀ measurement is the cleanest test
The framework puts itself at risk from 7 independent experiments using standard cosmological observations. No exotic apparatus required. If it survives to 2035, it will have passed tests comparable in rigor to the Higgs discovery.
Verdict
The framework is genuinely falsifiable. The next decade is decisive. The most dangerous moment is 2029 (DESI Y5 + sirens). If the framework fails ANY single test, it dies cleanly with no retreat to adjustable parameters. This is physics, not theology.