V2.668 - Dark Matter Particle Exclusion from Ω_Λ
V2.668: Dark Matter Particle Exclusion from Ω_Λ
Status: COMPLETED
The Prediction
The framework predicts Ω_Λ = R = |δ_total|/(6·α_s·N_eff) = 0.6877 from exactly the SM + graviton field content. Every proposed dark matter particle has a specific trace anomaly that shifts R by a calculable amount. No additional particle is allowed.
This gives the sharpest falsifiable prediction of the framework: all particle dark matter searches will return null results.
The Bidirectional Exclusion
The framework excludes DM candidates in TWO directions:
| DM type | Mechanism | Shift direction | Per-field σ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scalars (axions) | Small δ, dominated by α dilution | R decreases | -0.6σ |
| Fermions (WIMPs, sterile ν) | Moderate δ, α dominates | R decreases | -1.0σ |
| Vectors (dark photons) | Large δ dominates over α | R increases | +3.7σ |
This is the key physics: the SM sits at R = 0.6877 (+0.4σ above observation). Scalars and fermions push R down (away from observation in the negative direction). Vectors push R up (away in the positive direction). The SM value is hemmed in from both sides.
Maximum Allowed Fields (within 2σ)
| Species | Max additional fields | Constraint |
|---|---|---|
| Real scalars | 3 | Must not push R below 0.670 |
| Weyl fermions | 2 | Must not push R below 0.670 |
| Vectors | 0 | Even 1 vector exceeds upper 2σ bound |
A single new vector boson is excluded at >3.7σ. This is the most powerful exclusion.
Full Candidate Exclusion Table
| Rank | Candidate | Fields | R | σ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | String axiverse (100 axions) | 100 | 0.421 | -36.2 | EXCLUDED |
| 2 | MSSM (full) | 65 | 0.475 | -28.7 | EXCLUDED |
| 3 | Dark SU(3) sector | 14 | 0.831 | +20.1 | EXCLUDED |
| 4 | Dark SU(2) sector | 6 | 0.751 | +9.1 | EXCLUDED |
| 5 | String axiverse (10) | 10 | 0.644 | -5.6 | EXCLUDED |
| 6 | Split SUSY | 6 | 0.647 | -5.1 | EXCLUDED |
| 7 | Minimal DM (5-plet) | 5 | 0.654 | -4.3 | EXCLUDED |
| 8 | Dark photon | 1 | 0.715 | +4.1 | EXCLUDED |
| 9 | Dark photon + Higgs | 2 | 0.710 | +3.4 | EXCLUDED |
| 10 | νMSM (3 sterile ν) | 3 | 0.667 | -2.5 | EXCLUDED |
| 11 | Inert doublet | 4 | 0.669 | -2.1 | EXCLUDED |
| 12 | Higgsino DM | 2 | 0.674 | -1.5 | Strained |
| 13 | Wino DM | 2 | 0.674 | -1.5 | Strained |
| 14 | Dirac WIMP | 2 | 0.674 | -1.5 | Strained |
| 15 | Gravitino | 2 | 0.674 | -1.5 | Strained |
| 16 | Bino-like neutralino | 1 | 0.681 | -0.6 | Marginal |
| 17 | Sterile neutrino (keV) | 1 | 0.681 | -0.6 | Marginal |
| 18 | Scalar singlet | 1 | 0.683 | -0.2 | Marginal |
| 19 | QCD axion | 1 | 0.683 | -0.2 | Marginal |
| 20 | ALP | 1 | 0.683 | -0.2 | Marginal |
11 of 21 candidates excluded at >2σ. All 4 vector DM candidates excluded at >3σ.
Implications for Search Experiments
| Experiment | Framework prediction |
|---|---|
| XENONnT / LZ / DARWIN | Null result (WIMP direct detection) |
| LHC / FCC | No new particles beyond SM |
| ADMX / ABRACADABRA | QCD axion: marginal (-0.2σ), but string axiverse: excluded |
| Belle II / BaBar | No dark photon |
| CTA / Fermi-LAT | No DM annihilation signal |
| eROSITA / Athena | No sterile neutrino X-ray line |
| SHiP / DUNE | No heavy neutral leptons (if 3+ sterile ν) |
The strongest constraint: any experiment discovering a new gauge boson (dark photon, dark Z’, etc.) falsifies the framework at >4σ per boson.
Framework-Compatible DM Alternatives
If the framework is correct, dark matter must be NON-PARTICULATE:
| Alternative | ΔR | Compatible? | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primordial black holes | 0 | Yes | Viable in asteroid-mass window |
| Topological defects | 0 | Yes | Made from existing SM fields |
| QCD nuggets | 0 | Yes | Composite objects, no new fields |
| Modified gravity | 0 | Partially | No new particles, but modifies G |
The Loophole: Single-Field Candidates
The QCD axion (1 real scalar, ΔR = -0.005, -0.2σ) is essentially invisible to the framework. A single Majorana neutralino (-0.6σ) or single sterile neutrino (-0.6σ) are also marginal. The framework cannot exclude these at high significance individually.
However: combining with Euclid (projected σ(Ω_Λ) ~ 0.003), even a single new Weyl fermion would be excluded at ~2.4σ, and a single scalar at ~1.6σ.
Honest Assessment
Strengths
- Bidirectional exclusion is new: Vectors excluded from above, scalars/fermions from below. The SM is hemmed in.
- 41 experiments mapped: Every major DM search has a specific falsification threshold.
- Strongest exclusion for multi-particle models: MSSM (28.7σ), string axiverse (36.2σ), dark SU(3) (20.1σ) — these are devastating.
- Clear testable prediction: Detection of ANY new fundamental particle falsifies the framework. This is as sharp as predictions get.
- Non-particle DM preferred: PBHs, topological defects, and composite objects are compatible.
Weaknesses
- Single-field candidates marginal: A single axion (-0.2σ) or single Majorana fermion (-0.6σ) is not excluded. The framework cannot distinguish SM from SM + 1 axion with current Ω_Λ precision.
- Relies on the framework being correct: If R ≠ |δ|/(6α), the entire exclusion evaporates.
- Doesn’t address the DM problem: The framework says what DM ISN’T (particles) but doesn’t say what it IS. PBHs face their own constraints.
- Mass-independence assumption: We use δ is mass-independent (V2.650), which is established for free fields. If DM is very heavy, decoupling effects could reduce its effective δ contribution at the cosmological horizon scale.
- The “marginal” candidates are the most motivated ones: The QCD axion is arguably the best-motivated BSM particle, and it’s precisely the one the framework barely constrains.
What this means for the science
The framework makes the most radical prediction about dark matter of any cosmological theory: dark matter cannot be a fundamental particle. This is testable by dozens of ongoing and planned experiments. If XENONnT, LZ, ADMX, or the LHC discover a new particle, the framework is falsified. If they all return null results — as the framework predicts — this becomes increasingly powerful evidence.
The one caveat: the framework’s precision on Ω_Λ (±0.0073, or ±1.1%) leaves room for up to 3 scalars or 2 fermions. Euclid and CMB-S4 will tighten this to ±0.003, closing the loophole for even single-field candidates.
Files
src/dm_exclusion.py: All DM candidates, exclusion calculations, experiment mappingtests/test_dm_exclusion.py: 24 tests, all passingresults.json: Full numerical output