V2.576 - The Species-Dependence Atlas — Complete BSM Landscape for Ω_Λ
V2.576: The Species-Dependence Atlas — Complete BSM Landscape for Ω_Λ
Status: COMPLETE — Definitive reference for BSM constraints from Ω_Λ
Question
The framework predicts Ω_Λ = R = |δ_total|/(6α_s N_eff) where δ and N_eff are determined by the field content. This means every proposed BSM particle shifts Ω_Λ by a calculable, falsifiable amount. No other approach to the cosmological constant makes this prediction. This experiment constructs the definitive reference: 30+ BSM particles, 8 complete BSM theories, continuous sensitivity curves, and future experiment projections.
Key Results
1. Per-Spin Sensitivity
| Spin | δ per field | n_comp | dR/field | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scalar (0) | −1/90 | 1 | −0.005 | R decreases |
| Weyl (1/2) | −11/180 | 2 | −0.007 | R decreases |
| Dirac (1/2) | −11/90 | 4 | −0.011 | R decreases |
| Vector (1) | −31/45 | 2 | +0.027 | R INCREASES |
| Gravitino (3/2) | −11/180 | 4 | −0.018 | R decreases |
Key insight: Vectors are unique — they shift R upward because |δ_vector|/n_comp = 0.344 exceeds the SM average of 0.097. All other spins shift R downward. This asymmetry is a parameter-free prediction with a specific physical origin (gauge fields have the strongest trace anomaly per degree of freedom).
2. BSM Particle Catalog (30+ particles)
EXCLUDED by Ω_Λ (>5σ):
| Particle | σ | Theory |
|---|---|---|
| 4th gen up-type quark | −5.1σ | 4th generation |
| 4th gen down-type quark | −5.1σ | 4th generation |
| Full 4th generation (15 Weyl) | −11.8σ | 4th generation |
| Vector-like quark singlet | −5.1σ | Composite Higgs |
| W’ (SU(2)_R triplet) | +11.2σ | Left-right symmetric |
| Coloron (SU(3)’ octet) | +27.1σ | Extended color |
| KK gluon (1st mode) | +27.1σ | Extra dimensions |
DISFAVORED (3–5σ):
| Particle | σ | Theory |
|---|---|---|
| Higgs triplet (6 scalars) | −3.3σ | Type-II seesaw |
| Dark photon | +4.1σ | Dark sector |
| Z’ (extra U(1)) | +4.1σ | GUT/strings |
ALLOWED (<2σ):
| Particle | σ | Theory |
|---|---|---|
| QCD axion | −0.2σ | Strong CP |
| ALP (generic) | −0.2σ | String |
| Majoron | −0.2σ | Neutrino mass |
| Familon | −0.2σ | Flavor |
| Dilaton / Radion | −0.2σ | String/extra dim |
| Sterile neutrino (1 gen) | −0.6σ | Neutrino mass |
| Majorana DM | −0.6σ | WIMP DM |
| Dirac DM | −1.5σ | WIMP DM |
| Gravitino | −2.0σ | SUGRA |
3. Maximum Allowed BSM Content
| Particle type | Max at 2σ | Max at 3σ | Max at 5σ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real scalars | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Weyl fermions | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Dirac fermions | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Gauge vectors | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Zero extra gauge bosons are allowed at 3σ. The SM’s 12 vectors saturate the budget.
4. Complete BSM Theories
| Theory | R | σ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| SM + graviton | 0.6877 | +0.4σ | PERFECT |
| SM + QCD axion | 0.6830 | −0.2σ | OK |
| nuMSM (3 RH ν) | 0.6666 | −2.5σ | Tension |
| SM only (no graviton) | 0.6645 | −2.8σ | Tension |
| Left-Right Symmetric | 0.7214 | +5.0σ | EXCLUDED |
| MSSM | 0.4030 | −38.6σ | EXCLUDED |
| NMSSM | 0.4003 | −39.0σ | EXCLUDED |
| SU(5) GUT | 0.8227 | +18.9σ | EXCLUDED |
| SO(10) GUT | 1.0568 | +51.0σ | EXCLUDED |
5. SM Uniqueness
Among 9,598 field content combinations (up to 50 extra fields), only 12.8% produce R within 2σ of Ω_Λ. Of these 1,230 viable theories, 252 are closer to Ω_Λ than the SM — but all require extra fields with no experimental evidence. The SM is the simplest viable theory.
All 1,223 viable theories with extra vectors require compensating scalars/fermions to cancel the vector shift. No theory with extra vectors alone is viable.
6. Future Experiment Projections
| Experiment | σ(Ω_Λ) | Framework σ | Can detect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Planck 2018 | 0.0073 | +0.4σ | Dark photon at 3.7σ |
| DESI Y5 (2028) | 0.003 | +1.0σ | Sterile ν at 2.4σ |
| Euclid final (2030) | 0.002 | +1.5σ | Axion at 2.4σ, dark photon at 13.5σ |
| CMB-S4 + Euclid (2032) | 0.0015 | +2.0σ | Tests SM prediction at 2σ |
| Ultimate (2035) | 0.001 | +3.0σ | Definitive test of framework |
At ultimate precision (σ ~ 0.001): the framework’s R = 0.6877 is 3σ from the Planck central value of 0.6847. Either (a) the central value shifts toward R as data improves, or (b) the framework faces a 3σ tension. This is a concrete falsification timeline: by 2035, we will know.
7. The Smoking Gun
The discovery translation table:
| Discovery | Ω_Λ shift | Direction | Testable by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Light scalar (axion/ALP) | −0.005 | R decreases | Euclid+S4 |
| Sterile neutrino | −0.007 | R decreases | Euclid |
| Dark photon | +0.027 | R increases | DESI Y3 |
| 4th gen quark pair | −0.018 | R decreases | DESI Y5 |
| SUSY (any sparticle) | < −0.02 | R decreases | DESI Y3 |
The falsification logic:
- If a particle is discovered and Ω_Λ shifts in the wrong direction, the framework is falsified
- If it shifts by the predicted amount, that’s a σ-level confirmation
- The DIRECTION of the shift is a parameter-free prediction: vectors up, everything else down
The Unique Prediction
No other approach to the cosmological constant connects particle discoveries to Ω_Λ. In ΛCDM, Λ is a free parameter unrelated to field content. In quintessence, Λ comes from a scalar potential unrelated to the SM. In the anthropic landscape, Λ is random. Only this framework says:
Discover a new particle → Ω_Λ shifts by a calculable amount → test with cosmology
This is the most powerful unique prediction because:
- It’s falsifiable by particle physics AND cosmology simultaneously
- It connects two previously unrelated observations (SM content ↔ Ω_Λ)
- No tuning or adjustment is possible — the shift is determined by spin
- Near-future experiments (DESI Y5, Euclid, CMB-S4) can test it
Honest Assessment
Strengths:
- Comprehensive: 30+ particles, 8 complete theories, 9,598 field combinations
- Sharp exclusions: MSSM at 39σ, SU(5) at 19σ, SO(10) at 51σ
- Predictive: every future discovery has a pre-computed Ω_Λ shift
- Testable: Euclid final can detect a single axion’s effect at 2.4σ
Weaknesses:
- Framework assumes δ is exact (Adler-Bardeen). If higher-loop corrections contribute, shifts could differ from predictions
- The catalog assumes particles contribute at the Hubble scale. If a BSM particle is heavier than H₀ ~ 10⁻³³ eV, does it still contribute? The framework says yes (trace anomaly is UV/topological), but this is an assumption
- At ultimate precision (σ ~ 0.001), R = 0.6877 may face 3σ tension with current central value 0.6847 — unless the central value shifts
- The “allowed” BSM particles (axion, sterile ν) have small enough shifts that distinguishing “SM” from “SM + axion” requires σ < 0.002
What this means for the framework: This is the experiment to show skeptics. If someone says “so what, ΛCDM fits the data too,” the answer is: “ΛCDM doesn’t predict that discovering a dark photon shifts Ω_Λ by +0.027. We do. Check it.”