Experiments / V2.498
V2.498
Dynamical Selection COMPLETE

V2.498 - Dark Matter Identity from Dark Energy

V2.498: Dark Matter Identity from Dark Energy

Objective

Determine what dark matter can be, given that the framework predicts Ω_Λ from field content. Any DM particle shifts Ω_Λ — connecting dark energy to dark matter identity in a way no other theory does.

The Deep Connection

The framework predicts Ω_Λ = |δ_total|/(6α_s N_eff) from the SM field content. The SM+graviton prediction Ω_Λ = 0.688 matches Planck (0.685 ± 0.007) at +0.4σ without any dark matter particle. If DM is a new particle, it contributes to δ and N_eff regardless of its mass (the trace anomaly is mass-independent and one-loop exact). Every DM candidate therefore shifts Ω_Λ by a computable, exact amount.

Key Results

1. DM candidates ranked by Ω_Λ compatibility

RankCandidateΩ_ΛσStatus
1QCD Axion (1 scalar)0.683−0.2Best fit
2ALP / Fuzzy DM (1 scalar)0.683−0.2Excellent
3PBH (no new fields)0.688+0.4Good
4Sterile ν / Majorana WIMP (1 Weyl)0.681−0.6Good
5WIMP Dirac / Higgsino (2 Weyl)0.674−1.5Marginal
6Wino (3 Weyl)0.667−2.5Tension
7Dark photon (1 vector)0.715+4.1Excluded
8MSSM (49S + 32W)0.439−33.7Excluded

Surprise: single scalars (axion/ALP) IMPROVE the fit from +0.4σ to −0.2σ. The framework slightly prefers 1 extra scalar over no extra fields.

2. Maximum allowed DM particles (before 3σ exclusion)

DM typeMax allowedAt max: Ω_ΛAt max: σ
Scalars50.665−2.7
Weyl fermions30.667−2.5
Dirac fermions10.674−1.5
Vectors00.688+0.4

Vectors are the most constrained: even a SINGLE dark vector is at 4.1σ tension. Scalars are the least constrained: up to 5 light scalars are consistent.

3. Detection scenarios — every experiment creates an Ω_Λ test

ExperimentYearIf DM detectedΔΩ_ΛσTest
ADMX (axion)2026-20301 scalar−0.005−0.2Euclid by 2032
LZ/XENONnT (WIMP)2025-20282 Weyl−0.014−1.5Planck+DESI NOW
KATRIN/LEGEND (ν)2025-20301 Weyl−0.007−0.6DESI Y5
DarkSRF (dark photon)2027-20321 vector+0.027+4.1ALREADY excluded
Microlensing (PBH)2025-2035No new fields0+0.4Perfect consistency

If DM is a dark photon, the framework is falsified immediately (already at 4.1σ). If DM is an axion, the prediction improves. If DM is a PBH, nothing changes.

4. The framework’s DM preference hierarchy

  1. PBH — no new fields, Ω_Λ unchanged, prediction at +0.4σ
  2. Single scalar (axion/ALP) — improves fit to −0.2σ, framework’s “sweet spot”
  3. Majorana fermion — acceptable at −0.6σ
  4. Dirac fermion — marginal at −1.5σ
  5. Vector — excluded at +4.1σ
  6. Multi-component — tightly constrained

What Makes This Unique

  1. No other dark energy theory constrains dark matter identity. ΛCDM treats Ω_Λ and DM independently. Quintessence says nothing about DM. Only this framework connects the two through the trace anomaly.

  2. Every DM detection becomes a two-body test. Discovering DM at the LHC creates an immediate, zero-parameter prediction for ΔΩ_Λ. Confirming the shift validates the framework. Getting it wrong falsifies it.

  3. The direction matters. Scalars push Ω_Λ DOWN (toward better fit). Vectors push Ω_Λ UP (toward worse fit). This is a spin-dependent prediction — the framework predicts not just whether DM exists but what spin it has.

  4. The axion “sweet spot.” The fact that adding 1 scalar IMPROVES the fit (from +0.4σ to −0.2σ) is suggestive. The framework naturally prefers axionic DM over other candidates. This connects to the strong CP problem — the same physics that motivates the axion (Peccei-Quinn symmetry) also improves the Ω_Λ prediction.

Honest Limitations

  1. The improvement from +0.4σ to −0.2σ is not statistically significant. Both are excellent fits. The framework does not REQUIRE an axion — it merely slightly prefers one.

  2. Mass independence of δ is a UV property. While the trace anomaly coefficient is mass-independent in perturbation theory, the full entanglement entropy DOES depend on mass (V2.303 found α varies 43.6% with mass). The leading prediction ignores this, and mass corrections are suppressed by (m/M_Pl)², but this hasn’t been proven rigorously for all DM candidates.

  3. “Consistent at 2σ” includes 12 of 17 candidates. The framework doesn’t strongly discriminate between most candidates. Its main power is excluding vector DM and large BSM sectors (MSSM), not selecting a specific candidate.

  4. The framework doesn’t predict the DM relic abundance. It constrains what DM CAN be (via Ω_Λ) but doesn’t explain Ω_DM ≈ 0.26. That remains a separate problem.

Verdict

Dark energy constrains dark matter. The framework predicts Ω_Λ = 0.688 from SM+graviton alone, matching Planck at +0.4σ. Adding 1 scalar (axion) improves to −0.2σ. Vector DM is excluded at 4.1σ. MSSM at 33.7σ. Every DM detection creates an immediate Ω_Λ test — a connection no other theory makes. The framework’s preferred DM hierarchy: PBH > axion > Majorana fermion > Dirac fermion >> vector.

Files

  • src/dm_identity.py: 17 DM candidates, ranking, max allowed, detection scenarios
  • tests/test_dm.py: 23 tests, all passing
  • run_experiment.py: Full analysis driver
  • results.json: Machine-readable results