V2.435: Falsification Roadmap — Joint Significance and Decision Timeline

Date: 2026-03-11 Group: 12-falsifiability Status: COMPLETE — roadmap established, DESI is decisive

The Question

The framework makes multiple predictions from zero free parameters. What is the joint probability of matching all observations by coincidence? When will each prediction be decisively confirmed or falsified?

Current Scorecard

Prediction	Framework	Observed	Tension	Status
Ω_Λ	0.6877	0.6847 ± 0.0073	0.4σ	CONSISTENT
H₀ (Planck)	67.67	67.36 ± 0.54	0.6σ	CONSISTENT
w₀ (Planck)	-1.000	-1.03 ± 0.03	1.0σ	CONSISTENT
w₀ (DESI)	-1.000	-0.727 ± 0.067	4.1σ	TENSION
wₐ (DESI)	0.000	-1.05 ± 0.31	3.4σ	TENSION
H₀ (SH0ES)	67.67	73.04 ± 1.04	5.2σ	TENSION

Key Results

Information Criteria (Framework vs ΛCDM)

• Framework: 5 free parameters (vs ΛCDM’s 6)
• χ²(Ω_Λ prediction) = 0.17
• ΔAIC = -1.8 (framework favored)
• ΔBIC = -7.7 (framework strongly favored)
• Bayes factor = 46:1 in favor of framework

The framework saves 1 parameter and fits Ω_Λ to 0.4σ. By information criteria, it is strongly preferred over ΛCDM for the Ω_Λ determination.

The DESI Threat

• w₀ tension: 4.1σ (DESI DR1)
• wₐ tension: 3.4σ
• Combined 2D tension: ~5.3σ equivalent
• Framework response: w = -1 is a THEOREM (V2.256). No escape route.
• If DESI trend persists → framework FALSIFIED
• If DESI trend fades → framework VINDICATED

Joint Significance

Including DESI, the joint chi² shows significant tension (Fisher combined p = 4.4σ). Excluding DESI (Planck-only), the framework matches all observations at <1σ each — chi²/dof < 1.

This is the critical dichotomy: the framework is either spectacularly right (Planck) or spectacularly wrong (DESI).

Decision Timeline

Year	Experiment	Observable	Current σ	Future σ	Impact
2026	JUNO	hierarchy	—	decisive	NH preference tested
2027	DESI DR3	w₀	0.067	0.030	DECISIVE for w
2028	DESI Y5	w₀	0.067	0.020	Final word on w
2029	CMB-S4	H₀	0.54	0.25	H₀ to ±0.25
2029	Euclid	Σm_ν	0.060	0.030	Neutrino mass
2030	CMB-S4	Σm_ν	0.060	0.015	4σ detection of NH min

Kill Scenarios

1. w₀ ≠ -1 at >5σ (~40% by 2028): Framework has no escape route
2. Ω_Λ ≠ 0.688 at >3σ (~10% by 2029): Core formula wrong
3. New light BSM particle (~5% by 2030): R shifts, must still match
4. IH + Σm_ν > 0.15 eV (~15% by 2029): Matter budget breaks
5. H₀ > 70 from CMB (<5% by 2030): Ω_m inconsistent

Honest Assessment

Strengths:

• Zero-parameter predictions of Ω_Λ, H₀, w, Σm_ν from SM content alone
• Bayes factor 46:1 over ΛCDM (BIC)
• Every prediction is falsifiable and time-bounded
• Framework makes the sharpest possible prediction (w = -1 exactly)

Weaknesses:

• DESI w₀ tension is existential and cannot be explained away
• The framework cannot be modified to accommodate w ≠ -1
• Joint significance including DESI is poor (4.4σ tension)
• n_grav = 10 still lacks first-principles derivation (V2.433)

The framework is maximally falsifiable — it stakes everything on w = -1 with no free parameters and no escape routes. DESI Y5 (2028) is the decisive test. This is either the most successful zero-parameter cosmological prediction in history, or it will be cleanly killed within 2-3 years.

Files

• src/falsification_roadmap.py — Joint significance and timeline engine
• tests/test_roadmap.py — 10 tests, all passing
• run_experiment.py — Full 8-part analysis
• results.json — Machine-readable output