V2.389: Species-Dependence Falsification Map — 5 Unique Testable Predictions

Question

What predictions does this framework make that no other dark energy model shares? For each, what exact measurement would confirm or kill it, by which experiment, and when?

The 5 Unique Predictions

Every other dark energy model (ΛCDM, quintessence, modified gravity) treats Λ as independent of particle physics. This framework says Λ = f(field content). Five consequences follow that no competitor shares:

#	Prediction	Unique because	Kill experiment
1	Λ shifts calculably with new particles	ΛCDM: Λ is free	LHC + Euclid
2	N_eff = 3.044 required for correct Λ	ΛCDM: N_eff independent of Λ	CMB-S4 (2030)
3	Majorana neutrinos required	ΛCDM: agnostic	LEGEND/nEXO (2028-32)
4	BH log correction γ = -149/12	LQG: γ = -3/2 (universal)	QG phenomenology
5	m_graviton = 0 exactly	dRGT: m_g ~ H₀ explains DE	LISA (2035+)

Per-Particle Sensitivity

BSM particle	ΔR	σ (Planck)	σ (Euclid)	Status
Real scalar (axion)	-0.005	-0.6	-2.4	allowed → marginal
Complex scalar	-0.009	-1.3	-4.7	allowed → disfavored
Weyl fermion (sterile ν)	-0.007	-1.0	-3.6	allowed → disfavored
Dirac fermion	-0.014	-2.0	-7.1	allowed → EXCLUDED
Vector boson (Z’)	+0.027	+3.7	+13.5	disfavored → EXCLUDED
2nd Higgs doublet	-0.019	-2.5	-9.2	marginal → EXCLUDED
4th generation	-0.102	-14.0	-51.1	EXCLUDED
MSSM	-0.251	-34.3	-125.4	EXCLUDED
Dark SU(2)	+0.079	+10.8	+39.3	EXCLUDED
Dark SU(3)	+0.195	+26.7	+97.5	EXCLUDED

The direction of the Λ shift identifies the spin of the new particle. Scalars/fermions decrease Λ; vectors increase it. This is testable.

Species-Dependence Table

Scenario	R	Λ/Λ_obs	σ (Planck)	σ (Euclid)
SM + graviton	0.688	1.004	+0.4	+1.5
+ 1 axion	0.683	0.998	-0.2	-0.8
+ 1 sterile ν	0.681	0.994	-0.6	-2.1
+ 3 right-handed ν (Dirac)	0.667	0.974	-2.5	-9.0
+ 1 dark photon	0.715	1.044	+4.1	+15.0
+ 2HDM	0.669	0.978	-2.1	-7.7
+ 4th generation	0.586	0.855	-13.6	-49.6
+ MSSM	0.437	0.638	-33.9	-123.9

Experimental Timeline

Year	Experiment	Framework prediction	Kill threshold
2026	DESI DR2	w₀ = -1.00	Current 3.9σ tension (SNe-driven)
2027	DESI DR3	w₀ = -1.00 ± 0.00	5σ if w₀ = -0.85 persists
2028	Euclid	Ω_Λ = 0.688 ± 0.002	3σ if outside [0.682, 0.694]
2028	LEGEND-200	Majorana neutrinos	Dirac → R shifts by -0.02
2030	CMB-S4	N_eff = 3.044 ± 0.06	17σ if N_eff = 4
2035	LISA	Standard EW spectrum	Anomalous → new EW physics
2040	Cosmic variance	Ω_Λ at σ = 0.001	Pins n_grav to 10 or 11

The Acid Test

If a new light particle is discovered at ANY collider, the framework makes an IMMEDIATE prediction for how Ω_Λ must shift. If Euclid confirms the shift: framework wins. If Euclid sees no shift: framework is dead.

No other framework can be killed this way. This is the single most powerful distinguishing feature.

Most Vulnerable Point

DESI DR2’s w₀ = -0.75 ± 0.06 is a 3.9σ tension with the framework’s prediction w₀ = -1. However, V2.377 showed this tension is entirely SNe-driven — DESI’s own BAO data prefers w₀ = -1. If DESI DR3 (2027) confirms w₀ ≠ -1 at >5σ with independent calibration, the framework is falsified.

What This Means

This experiment assembles the framework’s complete falsification map. The framework makes 10+ quantitative predictions, each independently testable within 5-15 years. Five of these are UNIQUE — not shared with any competitor. The framework can die at least 5 independent ways. That is what makes it physics.

Files

• src/falsification_map.py: All predictions, sensitivities, timeline
• tests/test_falsification_map.py: 19 tests, all passing
• run_experiment.py: Full 8-section analysis
• results.json: Machine-readable output